The Zen of Statistics
My nickname comes from the proposed title for a book I was going to write a
couple of decades ago: The Zen of Statistics. I didn't get to it. Fortunately
other people wrote some books for the interested public which cover the territory.
I'll give a more complete list of them, but let's start with:
The Tyranny of Numbers
The Wisdom of Crowds
How to Lie With Statistics
How Not To Be Wrong
(more reading suggestions to come)
When I'm being a purist I like to think that what I say will be judged
on its own merit and I should not have to trot out qualifications and experience.
But I know better. So here are 3 pages on why I might have something of value to say
on some topics.
Click to download my CV (as a PDF)
Zen Koans of Statistics
The man with one watch knows what time it is. The man with two watches is never sure.
There are two kinds of people in the world. Those who believe there are two kinds of people in
the world, and those who do not.
Statistics means never having to say you're certain.
The trouble with back of the envelope calculations is that no matter how far you push the envelope it is still stationery.
"All models are wrong but some are useful" (George Box, 1978)
If the cost of information is too high, what then is the price of ignorance?
Absence of evidence is evidence of absence. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
What then is the evidence of evidence? Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge
Know what you don't know.
It's important to remember that "significant" in this context means "detectable" rather than "important." (Thomas Lumley, 2017)
"Every man has a right to his own opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts." (Bernard Baruch, 1950)
For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert, but for every fact there is not necessarily an equal and opposite fact (Thomas Sowell, 1995 in The Vision of the Anointed)
Comment is free, but facts are sacred. (C.P. Scott 1929)
When you are selling it is a buyers market
When you are buying it is a sellers market
Even when you are doing both at the same time.
text last updated 1 Jul 2018 9:30 AM
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